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Post-collapse values...
If things were to go badly and the dollar became worthless, how will I know the value of any PM I may have? If I have a silver round, worth $12 today, what would it be worth then in terms of what I could trade for? I think I'd expect more than $12 worth of goods at today's prices, but maybe I'm wrong? How many chickens or ears of corn or toothbrushes could I get with an oz of silver? I saw someone using a toilet paper example...how many rolls will you trade me for an oz of silver?
How will the "market" price itself out? It would seem to me that goods are only as valuable as people are desperate, but what does that desperation translate to in terms of PM? Anyone ever give this any thought? Thanks. |
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Germany once used the "cost" of a loaf of bread to determine the "value" of stuff. How many loaves of bread will this buy...
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You will have to do your homework. Ask around and find what the average prices are.
Right after a crash things will be chaotic. I personally don't think anyone is going to be trading PM untill after things stabilize. Once that happen it might be easier. If people are still using the internet, you might even be able to just check the spot price. That depends on the level of the crash though. |
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Great question. I've wondered this myself.
Unlike Asian societies where the people keep gold and silver on their radar screens, the great majority of Americans have forgotten their relative value in relation to other things (except for a vague jewelry related concept perhaps), and have to translate into a dollar value first. Without that reference they are lost. That metal-value-savvy has to be reestablished somehow. Doesn't look good. I am sure that the learning process won't take that much time, but if there is continued chaos over an extended period there may be no sure way to determine a trade value. If there is a rapidly devaluing currency in place it will not be a trustworthy reference. If there is access to information from other currency markets, maybe items in that market can be "cross-referenced" to gold/silver for an approximation, with a local correction applied for scarcity, abundance, etc. Communication is all-important. The more people compare notes the faster a consensus will eventually emerge. You may find yourself not using PMs much in a SHTF scenario; probably more so only after things have calmed down somewhat. That's why it's wise to be ready in advance with the non-PM things needed to tide you over. Ragnarok |
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When the times comes PM will find their own place in a natural way on their own, people will see that the fiat is no good and therefore look for something of intrinsic value in order to be able to keep on trading as they do now.
I don't look at my silver as an investment per se but more as security, if you want investment they buy stock or go short or long or whatever. I am very pleased to say that I have no bills (but for the monthly payments and yearly taxes) and that I have secured my future by investing in food and other items that will become invaluable in the years to come...... and of course my silver. |
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I think I remember hearing that back in 1980 one of Bunker Hunt's arab buddies saying that he thought 1 0z silver = One barrel of oil. Current real silver price $75?
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Wrote this on another thread, maybe more appropriate here;
On a SHTF scenario, I don't think chunks of metal are going to save our asses, why would anybody want it in a all out meltdown? It's a store of wealth in a functioning commercial economy but in a catastrophic situation it doesn't seem that valuable. I have a difficult time getting anyone to trade goods for gold or silver now, I can't imagine what it would be like if people are desperate for food and basic needs. I wonder how long after a SHTF situation it would be before "money" is the medium of exchange? I won't be selling my food stores for metal. |
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Ata? you might not sell me your food but you might want to buy my toilet paper....... have silver? :haha:
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:cool2: My dad used to tell me stories of how things were in the Great Depression (1930s) he was about sixteen years old at the time.
According to him the rich got richer and the poor got poorer. Work was plentiful,it just didn't pay squat. Food was plentiful everywhere,you just had to have money to buy it. Real estate prices went down the toliet and the rich bought all they could. I realize we now live in a just in time world where everything would get sucked up very quickly if TSHTF. I don't worry about the value of gold and silver going down the crapper,I think those that have it will be much better off than than Joe6Pack with a fistful of worthless dollars. Unless we're talking all out nuclear war,I doubt food will be totally unobtainable.Even in historical Germany with outrageous inflation and collapse the people still could buy food.Yes,it was probably pricey,but it was still available. Even if the dollar crashes and devalues at 10 to 1 nothing will change overnight.It would mean a drastic and brutal reduction of our present economy as we know it,but the rich will still be buying bargins as usual while the rest of us struggle to keep food on the table and a roof over our head.History repeating itself. One thing about the hyperinflation horror of Germany always struck me as extremely weird. If things were so bad,why the hell didn't they just leave and go somewhere else in Europe where things were normal ?They didn't shoot people for walking across the border that I know of. I would have took off walking to Africa before I slowly starved to death. Best to all :cool2: RiverRat |
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This is why it's important to have a plan and some stores to get through for a while. The ability to live at least a year out of the "system" is a good measure IMO.
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I'd think an ounce of silver at that time was worth more than a barrel of oil.
Think of the work, energy and investment it takes to produce an ounce of silver versus a barrel of oil.....and the availiability of silver to oil. If you simply tried to exchange all the oil that could be produced for silver at that rate, you'd run out of silver a LONG time before you ran out of oil......so on that basis, I'd think more like 10-50 barrels per ounce....maybe more. And THAT is the true basis for any form of money I think. How many loafs of bread can be produced for the same amount of work/energy/etc for a ounce of silver.......a WHOLE BUNCH I think...... What Atahualpa says is very true.....if the SHTF suddenly, metals will be relatively worthless for a long time....barter will be the economy of the day. Which is WHY I don't put a lot of my current savings efforts into PMs.....I split my savings between conventional paper promises, PMs, and actual practical items like beans, bullets and toliet paper. |
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If you don't have land to grow your own food, hunt, cut wood, get water. You aren't going to make it long no matter how much metal you have. You either prepare for the worst or you are just fooling yourself. I don't think the S will HTF. |
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Didn't it used to be said that an OZ/Silver = A days wages and Gold = A fine suit of clothes? Of course with the current lack of silver maybe those values need to be reversed but if we think along these lines we'll have a pretty good idea of what it'll be worth.
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I've read that a 90% Silver dime in 1913 or so was a day's pay for a man.
A 1oz Gold piece should buy you a nice suit. Let's see....we went over oil versus gold or silver already. Anyone have any other relations of historical value vs PMs |
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Hey-
IMHO, there is, under the present fiat regime, no way to accurately value anything. Under a SHTF scenario supply/demand fundamentals have the potential to place a given value on just about anything. I have food, but no silver, wanna trade? In fact, placing a value on PMs is totally impossible today. Why? Because I can call Monex and leverage my dollar account in a multiple of maybe four. Or I could purchace options or futures and increase the leverage even more. Imagine the following: You and I are both looking for a house and both really like the one at 123 Elm st. I have saved up 50 grand and will only pay cash. You don't have ANY cash but can borrow 200 grand. The house is listed for sale at 200 grand. What is the house worth? Since we are property (USA citizens) can we even "own" it at all? Maybe TS has already HTF, it just hasn't come to your house yet. Bring a pocketful of .999 by some day and lets figure out what a roll of potty paper or black market sausage is really worth. It will depend on whether you have dysentary or malnutrition. Today, both are extremely cheap because I only have cash (and very little of it) and you have a credit card (or magnetic digits on a balance sheet). The worst of all fears I have is that 300 million Amerikan citizens wake up in the morning and realize they are nothing but cash cows for the "magic mile". Volzka |
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ok...If I remember it correctly from what I've read recently.
They say the dollar today is worth what 2 cents was back in 1913? So...we are at $12.50 Silver .02 x 12.5 = 25 cents or 1 silver quarter This being said�.only conclusion to make is that Silver is extremely undervalued compared to 1913. To be at fair value Silver should be at 4 quarters x 12.50 silver = $50 Does anyone else concur with my rationale that Silver should be at $50 to be at fair value or is my math off? |
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Silver's cost = ( mine + refine + transport ) +- strength of demand.
.........................b a s e...... c o s t.................. c r i m e x....... Technology and energy abundance have vastly diminished the base price as compared to historical production costs. |
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I am going to have to think on this one for a minute or 3, but one thing not figured into your equation is that Silver & Gold were fixed in price. 1 dollar was .715 ounces of silver so today .715 ounces of silver = .715 * $13.00 = $9.29 so 1/4 of $9.29 is what one quarter is worth today now if we value it by loss of purchasing power, 98% loss for FIAT or a gain of 98% for gold/silver we start with the value of $1.29 per ounce (I believe that is correct) for 1913 1.98 * $1.29 = $2.55 there is more to it than this, I think that is why folks tend to use historical relationships, daily wages, gold/silver ratio, etc because these items do not vary as much over time as say amount of currency, deficits, etc |
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One silver dime for a days works sound about right, but one oz of gold for a "nice" suit??????? maybe they mean one oz of silver?
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Have no idea what you base your 'think' on....but to me, there IS a reasonable chance it will do exactly that. But millions and millions of people are betting their lives it won't. They had best hope that particular wager works out. |
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I believe the "suit" for gold saying is correct, at least, that's what I've always heard. And maybe it's true. Several years ago I went to a taylor to have a suit made and all of the other suits in his window were going for about $ 800 and up. They were good suits (as in the saying). Fortunately, I didn't have to pay that much as he had one already made that he was willing to alter for me. On the other hand the dime for a days work can't be right (perhaps .10 per hour?). About $ 1.00 a day is more like it. In the 19th century, in the old west, there was a saying about a cowboy's wage: "A dollar a day and found", meaning a dollar a day plus 3 squares. (I think). And Henry Ford introduced the $ 5.00/day wage (and then, as I understand it, he promptly turned on the production line to something above light-speed, effectively negating the increase in salary cost to his company. An old fox if ever there was one. Btw, he also used to keep $ 1,000,000 in cash in the safe in his private office). In 1920, my great grandmother (after many years of petitioning the fed gov, she didn't receive it until she was almost 80 years old) started receiving her widows pension for my great grandfather's service in the Union Army during the War Between the States, which pension was $ 30.00 per month at the time of her death in 1925. I don't think that a typical wage of .10/day could be right, even if it were based on a scale 20-30 years earlier. Adios. |
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I am not sure about a dime as a days pay but My grandfather was a lumberjack in Alabama and he told me that they made a quarter a day for a days work which started at 6:00 am til it got to dark to chop and saw trees down.:mad:
I |
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And no,eating right and exercising isnt going to repair a burned up thyroid,must have them or early death. Spuds:sheep: |
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A lot of good thoughts here.
This is exactly WHY I only store 90% junk coins. THEY still have a recognized face value. If the dollar falls through the floor and drops 1300 %. A silver dollar could be worth a dollar again. A silver quarter would be worth twenty five cents again. If you have a one oz round of silver and Joe, the gas station owner or grocery store owner probably won't take it as he CAN'T figure out that one oz round of silver IS worth one dollar. Whereas my Morgans SAY what they are worth right on them. While you and I know that silver and gold has an intrinsic value, Joe the grocery store owner may not. Worse yet, HE MAY KNOW EXACTLY what it's worth but just doesn't WANT to take it. Not worth his time. What's the old curse? "May you live in interesting times." |
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